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Championship

Ards vs Moyola Park

Fri 13 Nov 21:45 1 day, 20 hours
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 75.5%
why
• league OK (66.7%, n=33)
• type ledger 79% (n=2310)
league track
ok · 66.7% of 33 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 49.6%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 18/19 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 78.5% hit (n=2310, 90d ledger)
measured band: 77.3% (n=950)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2555)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
75.5%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins solid (75.5%)
@ 11 Nov 23:57
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
42.9%
Draw
24.5%
Away win
32.6%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:57
scoring fit λ 1.61 / μ 1.38
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 06 Nov · 332 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
32.6%
3.07x 48.2% n=332 risky
Draw
24.5%
4.08x 48.2% n=332 risky
top Home win
42.9%
2.33x 48.2% n=332 risky
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Ards 0W / 1D / 0L · momentum Ards 1.0 ppg vs Moyola Park 1.17 ppg
Ards · last 6
07 Nov · Championship 3-0 L
31 Oct · Championship 1-1 D
24 Oct · Championship 1-1 D
20 Oct · League Cup 0-0 D
16 Oct · Championship 0-2 L
09 Oct · Championship 0-2 W
Moyola Park · last 6
06 Nov · Championship 1-2 L
31 Oct · Championship 1-1 D
20 Oct · League Cup 1-4 W
16 Oct · Championship 2-3 L
10 Oct · Championship 1-2 W
03 Oct · Championship 0-3 L
Head-to-head last 5
19 Sep 26 · Championship Moyola Park 0-0 Ards