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Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon
Sun 08 Nov 18:15 0 minutes final 2–0 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 94.0%
why
• league PROVEN (76.7%, n=30)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 76.7% of 30 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.1%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 18/22 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2519)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.0%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
36.5%
Draw
27.6%
Away win
35.8%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 1.54 / μ 1.52
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 448 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
35.8%
|
2.79x | 43.8% n=448 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
27.6%
|
3.62x | 43.8% n=448 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
36.5%
|
2.74x | 43.8% n=448 | risky | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Stade Brestoi… 4W / 3D / 5L
· momentum Stade Brest… 1.83 ppg vs Lyon 1.17 ppg
Stade Brestois 29 · last 6
08 Nov · Ligue 1
2-0
W
31 Oct · Ligue 1
0-2
W
23 Oct · Ligue 1
1-2
L
17 Oct · Ligue 1
1-1
D
10 Oct · Ligue 1
5-1
W
03 Oct · Friendlies Clubs
2-2
D
Lyon · last 6
08 Nov · Ligue 1
2-0
L
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League
1-1
D
31 Oct · Ligue 1
2-0
W
25 Oct · Ligue 1
2-0
L
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
3-0
L
18 Oct · Ligue 1
2-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Ligue 1
Stade Brestois … 2-0 Lyon
18 Jan 26 · Ligue 1
Lyon 2-1 Stade Brestois …
02 Nov 25 · Ligue 1
Stade Brestois … 0-0 Lyon
02 Mar 25 · Ligue 1
Lyon 2-1 Stade Brestois …
11 Jan 25 · Ligue 1
Stade Brestois … 2-1 Lyon