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Serie B
Pisa vs Sudtirol
Sat 07 Nov 16:00 0 minutes final 2–2 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 91.9%
why
• league OK (68.6%, n=35)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 68.6% of 35 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 52.0%)
draws 36.7% of matches
team history 16/16 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.9%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
61.6%
Draw
25.4%
Away win
13.0%
calibrated 07 Nov 10:58
scoring fit λ 1.93 / μ 0.81
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 387 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
13.0%
|
7.71x | 48.6% n=387 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
25.4%
|
3.94x | 48.6% n=387 | risky | won |
| top Home win |
61.6%
|
1.62x | 48.6% n=387 | lean | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 9 meetings — Pisa 3W / 4D / 2L
· momentum Pisa 1.5 ppg vs Sudtirol 0.67 ppg
Pisa · last 6
07 Nov · Serie B
2-2
D
01 Nov · Serie B
2-0
L
28 Oct · Serie B
3-3
D
25 Oct · Serie B
1-1
D
17 Oct · Serie B
3-1
W
10 Oct · Serie B
0-3
W
Sudtirol · last 6
07 Nov · Serie B
2-2
D
31 Oct · Serie B
1-1
D
27 Oct · Serie B
2-0
L
24 Oct · Serie B
1-1
D
18 Oct · Serie B
3-0
L
10 Oct · Serie B
0-0
D
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Serie B
Pisa 2-2 Sudtirol
09 May 25 · Serie B
Pisa 3-3 Sudtirol
19 Oct 24 · Pro League
Sudtirol 1-2 Pisa
19 Oct 24 · Serie B
Sudtirol 1-2 Pisa
05 May 24 · Pro League
Pisa 2-2 Sudtirol