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Championship

Loughgall vs Glenavon FC

Fri 13 Nov 21:45 1 day, 21 hours
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Draw or Away · 82.1%
why
• league OK (66.7%, n=33)
• type ledger 75% (n=661)
league track
ok · 66.7% of 33 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 49.6%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 17/17 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 74.9% hit (n=661, 90d ledger)
measured band: 70.8% (n=65)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2555)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
82.1%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Safer
73.1%
Either team wins
safest leg we would still back — lower variance, smaller payout.
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Draw or Away solid (82.1%)
@ 11 Nov 23:57
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
17.9%
Draw
26.9%
Away win
55.2%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:57
scoring fit λ 1.09 / μ 1.96
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 06 Nov · 332 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
top Away win
55.2%
1.81x 48.2% n=332 lean
Draw
26.9%
3.71x 48.2% n=332 risky
Home win
17.9%
5.58x 48.2% n=332 risky
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 10 meetings — Loughgall 4W / 2D / 4L · momentum Loughgall 1.67 ppg vs Glenavon FC 2.67 ppg
Loughgall · last 6
07 Nov · Championship 0-3 W
31 Oct · Championship 0-3 L
24 Oct · Championship 1-2 W
20 Oct · League Cup 0-3 W
16 Oct · Championship 1-1 D
10 Oct · Championship 1-2 L
Glenavon FC · last 6
07 Nov · Championship 2-0 W
31 Oct · Championship 2-4 W
20 Oct · League Cup 0-5 W
16 Oct · Championship 4-0 W
10 Oct · Championship 1-1 D
03 Oct · Championship 0-3 W
Head-to-head last 5
25 Sep 26 · Championship Glenavon FC 4-1 Loughgall
19 Jul 25 · Friendlies Clubs Loughgall 1-2 Glenavon FC
05 Apr 25 · Premiership Glenavon FC 0-1 Loughgall
04 Mar 25 · Premiership Loughgall 0-2 Glenavon FC
02 Nov 24 · Premiership Loughgall 3-0 Glenavon FC