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Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich
Sat 07 Nov 16:30 0 minutes final 1–2 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 1.5 goals · 87.4%
why
• league PROVEN (82.6%, n=46)
• type ledger 69% (n=403)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 82.6% of 46 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 69.3%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 19/22 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O1.5: 69.5% hit (n=403, 90d ledger)
measured band: 74.1% (n=58)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
87.4%
Over 1.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
16.9%
Draw
24.1%
Away win
59.1%
calibrated 07 Nov 16:32
scoring fit λ 1.39 / μ 2.52
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 02 Nov · 406 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
59.1%
|
1.69x | 52.5% n=406 | lean | won |
| Draw |
24.1%
|
4.16x | 52.5% n=406 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
16.9%
|
5.92x | 52.5% n=406 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — FSV Mainz 05 3W / 1D / 9L
· momentum FSV Mainz 05 0.5 ppg vs Bayern Muni… 2.33 ppg
FSV Mainz 05 · last 6
07 Nov · Bundesliga
1-2
L
30 Oct · Bundesliga
4-1
L
27 Oct · DFB Pokal
2-0
L
24 Oct · Bundesliga
2-3
L
17 Oct · Bundesliga
0-1
W
10 Oct · Bundesliga
3-4
L
Bayern Munich · last 6
07 Nov · Bundesliga
1-2
W
03 Nov · UEFA Champions League
0-2
W
31 Oct · Bundesliga
2-2
D
28 Oct · DFB Pokal
6-1
W
25 Oct · Bundesliga
1-3
W
21 Oct · UEFA Champions League
2-2
D
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Bayern Munich
25 Apr 26 · Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayern Munich
14 Dec 25 · Bundesliga
Bayern Munich 2-2 FSV Mainz 05
26 Apr 25 · Bundesliga
Bayern Munich 3-0 FSV Mainz 05
14 Dec 24 · Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Bayern Munich