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Bundesliga
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg
Sat 07 Nov 16:30 0 minutes final 5–2 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 89.5%
why
• league PROVEN (82.6%, n=46)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 82.6% of 46 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 69.3%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 22/17 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 90.8% (n=337)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
89.5%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
62.2%
Draw
22.8%
Away win
15.0%
calibrated 07 Nov 16:32
scoring fit λ 2.43 / μ 1.20
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 02 Nov · 406 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
15.0%
|
6.65x | 52.5% n=406 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
22.8%
|
4.39x | 52.5% n=406 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
62.2%
|
1.61x | 52.5% n=406 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 21 meetings — RB Leipzig 14W / 6D / 1L
· momentum RB Leipzig 2.0 ppg vs FC Augsburg 0.83 ppg
RB Leipzig · last 6
07 Nov · Bundesliga
5-2
W
04 Nov · UEFA Champions League
2-3
L
31 Oct · Bundesliga
0-2
W
27 Oct · DFB Pokal
1-2
W
24 Oct · Bundesliga
4-0
W
21 Oct · UEFA Champions League
4-1
L
FC Augsburg · last 6
07 Nov · Bundesliga
5-2
L
31 Oct · Bundesliga
1-2
L
27 Oct · DFB Pokal
2-4
W
24 Oct · Bundesliga
1-1
D
17 Oct · Bundesliga
4-3
L
10 Oct · Bundesliga
2-2
D
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Bundesliga
RB Leipzig 5-2 FC Augsburg
07 Mar 26 · Bundesliga
RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Augsburg
25 Oct 25 · Bundesliga
FC Augsburg 0-6 RB Leipzig
14 Feb 25 · Bundesliga
FC Augsburg 0-0 RB Leipzig
28 Sep 24 · Bundesliga
RB Leipzig 4-0 FC Augsburg