HOME
Bundesliga

FC Koln vs Bayer Leverkusen

Sun 08 Nov 16:30 0 minutes final 1–2 · settled
AWAY
back to predictions
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.6%
why
• league PROVEN (82.6%, n=46)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 82.6% of 46 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 69.3%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 15/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4488)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.6%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
31.4%
Draw
26.5%
Away win
42.1%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:23
scoring fit λ 1.54 / μ 1.80
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 02 Nov · 406 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
42.1%
2.38x 52.5% n=406 risky won
Draw
26.5%
3.77x 52.5% n=406 risky lost
Home win
31.4%
3.19x 52.5% n=406 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 39 meetings — FC Koln 7W / 9D / 23L · momentum FC Koln 1.33 ppg vs Bayer Lever… 1.5 ppg
FC Koln · last 6
08 Nov · Bundesliga 1-2 L
01 Nov · Bundesliga 1-1 D
27 Oct · DFB Pokal 5-0 W
24 Oct · Bundesliga 0-0 D
16 Oct · Bundesliga 1-0 L
11 Oct · Bundesliga 2-1 W
Bayer Leverkusen · last 6
08 Nov · Bundesliga 1-2 W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League 0-1 L
31 Oct · Bundesliga 2-4 L
28 Oct · DFB Pokal 5-2 W
25 Oct · Bundesliga 3-0 L
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League 0-2 W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Bundesliga FC Koln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen
25 Apr 26 · Bundesliga FC Koln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen
13 Dec 25 · Bundesliga Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 FC Koln
05 Feb 25 · DFB Pokal Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 FC Koln
03 Mar 24 · Bundesliga FC Koln 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen