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Primera División Femenina
Granadilla Tenerife Women vs Deportivo Alavés
Sun 08 Nov 14:00 0 minutesDe
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 80.3%
book 1.29x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (74.2%, n=31)
• type ledger 80% (n=1980)
• short price 1.29x
league track
proven · 74.2% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.8%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 11/9 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1980, 90d ledger)
measured band: 82.0% (n=423)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
80.3%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home, draw refunds
solid (75.0%)
@ 08 Nov 10:39 · 1.43x
board also had Home or Draw 80.3%
Home or Draw
solid (80.3%)
@ 08 Nov 10:39 · 1.29x
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
59.1%
Draw
21.2%
Away win
19.7%
calibrated 08 Nov 10:39
scoring fit λ 1.70 / μ 0.84
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 240 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
19.7%
|
5.08x | 63.7% n=240 | risky |
| Draw |
21.2%
|
4.71x | 63.7% n=240 | risky |
| top Home win |
59.1%
|
1.69x | 63.7% n=240 | lean |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Granadilla … 2.0 ppg vs Deportivo A… 0.33 ppg
Granadilla Tenerife Women · last 6
01 Nov · Primera División Feme…
2-0
W
25 Oct · Primera División Feme…
3-2
L
17 Oct · Primera División Feme…
0-4
W
04 Oct · Primera División Feme…
2-1
W
27 Sep · Primera División Feme…
1-2
W
20 Sep · Primera División Feme…
1-3
L
Deportivo Alavés · last 6
01 Nov · Primera División Feme…
1-1
D
25 Oct · Primera División Feme…
2-1
L
18 Oct · Primera División Feme…
1-1
D
03 Oct · Primera División Feme…
1-0
L
26 Sep · Primera División Feme…
1-0
L
18 Sep · Primera División Feme…
0-6
L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.
Tickets including this match