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Primera División Femenina
Barcelona Women vs Madrid CFF Women
Sun 08 Nov 18:00 0 minutes final 5–1 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 95.0%
why
• league PROVEN (74.2%, n=31)
• type ledger 75% (n=2258)
league track
proven · 74.2% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.8%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 15/12 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2258, 90d ledger)
measured band: 87.7% (n=57)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
95.0%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
93.0%
Draw
5.0%
Away win
1.9%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:26
scoring fit λ 3.87 / μ 0.50
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 240 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
1.9%
|
51.43x | 63.7% n=240 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
5.0%
|
19.84x | 63.7% n=240 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
93.0%
|
1.07x | 63.7% n=240 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Barcelona Wom… 11W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Barcelona W… 2.5 ppg vs Madrid CFF … 1.33 ppg
Barcelona Women · last 6
08 Nov · Primera División Feme…
5-1
W
01 Nov · Primera División Feme…
0-4
W
29 Oct · UEFA Champions League…
0-8
W
25 Oct · Primera División Feme…
3-0
W
18 Oct · Primera División Feme…
2-1
L
04 Oct · Primera División Feme…
7-0
W
Madrid CFF Women · last 6
08 Nov · Primera División Feme…
5-1
L
01 Nov · Primera División Feme…
2-1
W
25 Oct · Primera División Feme…
2-2
D
18 Oct · Primera División Feme…
4-0
L
03 Oct · Primera División Feme…
2-2
D
26 Sep · Primera División Feme…
1-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Primera División Feme…
Barcelona Women 5-1 Madrid CFF Women
31 May 26 · Primera División Feme…
Madrid CFF Women 0-4 Barcelona Women
10 Jan 26 · Primera División Feme…
Barcelona Women 12-1 Madrid CFF Women
16 Feb 25 · Primera División Feme…
Barcelona Women 5-1 Madrid CFF Women
05 Oct 24 · Primera División Feme…
Madrid CFF Women 1-8 Barcelona Women