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Primera División Femenina
Athletic Club Women vs Real Madrid Women
Sun 08 Nov 18:00 0 minutes final 1–1 · 1 won · 1 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Draw or Away · 85.9%
book 1.33x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (74.2%, n=31)
• type ledger 77% (n=658)
• priced 1.33x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
proven · 74.2% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.8%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 12/16 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 76.6% hit (n=658, 90d ledger)
measured band: 85.1% (n=87)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
85.9%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (85.8%)
@ 08 Nov 17:26 · 1.35x
pick lost
Draw or Away
solid (85.9%)
@ 08 Nov 17:26 · 1.33x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
14.1%
Draw
14.2%
Away win
71.7%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:26
scoring fit λ 0.83 / μ 2.27
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 240 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
71.7%
|
1.4x | 63.7% n=240 | solid | lost |
| Draw |
14.2%
|
7.04x | 63.7% n=240 | risky | won |
| Home win |
14.1%
|
7.09x | 63.7% n=240 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Athletic Club… 2W / 1D / 9L
· momentum Athletic Cl… 1.5 ppg vs Real Madrid… 1.83 ppg
Athletic Club Women · last 6
08 Nov · Primera División Feme…
1-1
D
01 Nov · Primera División Feme…
2-0
L
25 Oct · Primera División Feme…
0-0
D
17 Oct · Primera División Feme…
1-0
W
03 Oct · Primera División Feme…
2-2
D
27 Sep · Primera División Feme…
3-2
W
Real Madrid Women · last 6
08 Nov · Primera División Feme…
1-1
D
01 Nov · Primera División Feme…
1-3
W
28 Oct · UEFA Champions League…
2-2
D
25 Oct · Primera División Feme…
3-2
W
17 Oct · Primera División Feme…
3-1
W
04 Oct · Primera División Feme…
7-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Primera División Feme…
Athletic Club W… 1-1 Real Madrid Wom…
13 Jan 26 · Primera División Feme…
Real Madrid Wom… 0-1 Athletic Club W…
12 Oct 25 · Primera División Feme…
Athletic Club W… 1-4 Real Madrid Wom…
02 Mar 25 · Primera División Feme…
Athletic Club W… 1-2 Real Madrid Wom…
22 Sep 24 · Primera División Feme…
Real Madrid Wom… 2-0 Athletic Club W…
Tickets including this match