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Damallsvenskan
AIK vs Uppsala Women
Sat 07 Nov 14:00 0 minutes final 4–2 · settledUp
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 1.5 goals · 91.3%
why
• league OK (66.7%, n=27)
• type ledger 69% (n=403)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 66.7% of 27 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 47.8%)
draws 15.0% of matches
team history 22/20 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O1.5: 69.5% hit (n=403, 90d ledger)
measured band: 88.4% (n=258)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3031)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.3%
Over 1.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
96.0%
Draw
2.0%
Away win
2.0%
calibrated 07 Nov 11:02
scoring fit λ 3.59 / μ 0.22
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 09 Nov · 308 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
2.0%
|
50.0x | 58.4% n=308 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
2.0%
|
50.0x | 58.4% n=308 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
96.0%
|
1.04x | 58.4% n=308 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — AIK 1W / 1D / 0L
· momentum AIK 2.0 ppg vs Uppsala Wom… 0.0 ppg
AIK · last 6
07 Nov · Damallsvenskan
4-2
W
31 Oct · Damallsvenskan
2-5
W
24 Oct · Damallsvenskan
2-0
W
17 Oct · Damallsvenskan
3-2
L
04 Oct · Damallsvenskan
2-1
L
26 Sep · Damallsvenskan
3-0
W
Uppsala Women · last 6
07 Nov · Damallsvenskan
4-2
L
01 Nov · Damallsvenskan
0-7
L
24 Oct · Damallsvenskan
5-0
L
17 Oct · Damallsvenskan
0-5
L
04 Oct · Damallsvenskan
9-0
L
26 Sep · Damallsvenskan
1-4
L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Damallsvenskan
AIK 4-2 Uppsala Women
30 May 26 · Damallsvenskan
Uppsala Women 2-2 AIK