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UEFA Europa League

Real Sociedad vs Lyon

Thu 05 Nov 19:45 0 minutes final 1–1 · 0 won · 1 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Either team wins · 80.7%
book 1.33x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (71.1%, n=45)
• type ledger 78% (n=2297)
• priced 1.33x - band hits ~65% (60d)
• draw bets in this league lose 31% at book prices (90d n=70)
league track
proven · 71.1% of 45 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.6%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 24/22 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 78.5% hit (n=2297, 90d ledger)
measured band: 80.2% (n=698)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
80.7%
Either team wins
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins solid (80.7%)
@ 05 Nov 17:24 · 1.33x
pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
52.4%
Draw
19.3%
Away win
28.2%
calibrated 05 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 2.07 / μ 1.47
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 269 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
28.2%
3.54x 55.4% n=269 risky lost
Draw
19.3%
5.18x 55.4% n=269 risky won
top Home win
52.4%
1.91x 55.4% n=269 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Real Sociedad 0W / 1D / 0L · momentum Real Socied… 2.17 ppg vs Lyon 1.17 ppg
Real Sociedad · last 6
08 Nov · La Liga 1-0 W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League 1-1 D
01 Nov · La Liga 2-1 L
25 Oct · La Liga 2-1 W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League 0-6 W
18 Oct · La Liga 2-5 W
Lyon · last 6
08 Nov · Ligue 1 2-0 L
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League 1-1 D
31 Oct · Ligue 1 2-0 W
25 Oct · Ligue 1 2-0 L
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League 3-0 L
18 Oct · Ligue 1 2-1 W
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · UEFA Europa League Real Sociedad 1-1 Lyon