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La Liga
Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano
Sun 08 Nov 18:00 0 minutes final 1–0 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.7%
why
• league OK (68.1%, n=47)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 68.1% of 47 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 53.8%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 25/20 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.7%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
63.7%
Draw
18.1%
Away win
18.2%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:23
scoring fit λ 2.11 / μ 1.01
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 379 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
18.2%
|
5.48x | 52.0% n=379 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
18.1%
|
5.52x | 52.0% n=379 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
63.7%
|
1.57x | 52.0% n=379 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 35 meetings — Real Sociedad 13W / 13D / 9L
· momentum Real Socied… 2.17 ppg vs Rayo Vallec… 1.33 ppg
Real Sociedad · last 6
08 Nov · La Liga
1-0
W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League
1-1
D
01 Nov · La Liga
2-1
L
25 Oct · La Liga
2-1
W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
0-6
W
18 Oct · La Liga
2-5
W
Rayo Vallecano · last 6
08 Nov · La Liga
1-0
L
31 Oct · La Liga
3-0
W
27 Oct · Copa del Rey
2-3
W
24 Oct · La Liga
0-3
L
19 Oct · La Liga
1-1
D
19 Sep · La Liga
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · La Liga
Real Sociedad 1-0 Rayo Vallecano
26 Apr 26 · La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 3-3 Real Sociedad
05 Oct 25 · La Liga
Real Sociedad 0-1 Rayo Vallecano
16 Mar 25 · La Liga
Rayo Vallecano 2-2 Real Sociedad
16 Jan 25 · Copa del Rey
Real Sociedad 3-1 Rayo Vallecano
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