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La Liga

Valencia vs Real Madrid

Sun 08 Nov 18:00 0 minutes final 0–3 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 93.3%
why
• league OK (68.1%, n=47)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 68.1% of 47 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 53.8%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 19/23 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.3% (n=1742)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.3%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
10.9%
Draw
9.2%
Away win
80.0%
calibrated 08 Nov 00:47
scoring fit λ 0.64 / μ 2.43
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 379 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
80.0%
1.25x 52.0% n=379 solid won
Draw
9.1%
10.93x 52.0% n=379 risky lost
Home win
10.9%
9.2x 52.0% n=379 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 72 meetings — Valencia 11W / 16D / 45L · momentum Valencia 0.83 ppg vs Real Madrid 3.0 ppg
Valencia · last 6
08 Nov · La Liga 0-3 L
01 Nov · La Liga 0-1 W
24 Oct · La Liga 1-2 L
17 Oct · La Liga 0-0 D
11 Oct · La Liga 2-2 D
20 Sep · La Liga 2-3 L
Real Madrid · last 6
08 Nov · La Liga 0-3 W
04 Nov · UEFA Champions League 2-3 W
01 Nov · La Liga 0-3 W
25 Oct · La Liga 1-2 W
21 Oct · UEFA Champions League 4-1 W
18 Oct · La Liga 4-1 W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · La Liga Valencia 0-3 Real Madrid
09 Feb 26 · La Liga Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid
02 Nov 25 · La Liga Real Madrid 4-0 Valencia
24 Apr 25 · La Liga Real Madrid 3-0 Valencia
05 Apr 25 · La Liga Real Madrid 1-2 Valencia
Tickets including this match
SURESHOT win chance 77.1% VOID SURESHOT win chance 79.5% VOID SURESHOT win chance 84.4% VOID SURESHOT win chance 78.7% VOID SURESHOT win chance 90.8% VOID SURESHOT win chance 90.4% VOID