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Premier League
Vipers vs Lugazi
Thu 05 Nov 19:00 0 minutes final 2–0 · 1 won · 0 lostLu
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 1.5 goals · 65.7%
book 1.23x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (72.7%, n=44)
• type ledger 69% (n=403)
• short price 1.23x
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 72.7% of 44 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 58.2%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 15/12 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O1.5: 69.5% hit (n=403, 90d ledger)
measured band: 63.3% (n=79)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.0% hit (n=2521)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
65.7%
Over 1.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Over 1.5 goals
lean (65.7%)
@ 05 Nov 17:24 · 1.23x
board also had Either team wins 75.3%
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
70.6%
Draw
24.7%
Away win
4.8%
calibrated 05 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 1.94 / μ 0.45
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
4.8%
|
21.07x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
24.7%
|
4.06x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
70.6%
|
1.42x | 67.7% n=31 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 5 meetings — Vipers 4W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Vipers 1.33 ppg vs Lugazi 0.33 ppg
Vipers · last 6
05 Nov · Premier League
2-0
W
31 Oct · Premier League
1-0
L
28 Oct · Premier League
1-0
L
23 Oct · Premier League
0-0
D
15 Oct · Premier League
0-5
W
11 Oct · Premier League
1-1
D
Lugazi · last 6
05 Nov · Premier League
2-0
L
31 Oct · Premier League
1-2
L
28 Oct · Premier League
2-1
L
21 Oct · Premier League
0-0
D
13 Oct · Premier League
0-0
D
07 Oct · Premier League
3-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · Premier League
Vipers 2-0 Lugazi
03 Mar 26 · Premier League
Vipers 3-0 Lugazi
17 Dec 25 · Premier League
Lugazi 1-2 Vipers
03 Apr 25 · Premier League
Vipers 1-0 Lugazi
26 Sep 24 · Premier League
Lugazi 0-0 Vipers