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Indian Super League
ATK Mohun Bagan vs Odisha
Thu 05 Nov 16:00 0 minutes final 3–2 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 91.0%
book 1.13x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (82.6%, n=23)
• type ledger 80% (n=1995)
• short price 1.13x
• SELECT 90%+ (measured >=88%)
league track
proven · 82.6% of 23 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 62.9%)
draws 31.7% of matches
team history 9/6 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1995, 90d ledger)
measured band: 90.9% (n=164)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3034)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
91.0%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (91.0%)
@ 05 Nov 10:47 · 1.13x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
58.6%
Draw
32.4%
Away win
9.0%
calibrated 05 Nov 10:47
scoring fit λ 1.92 / μ 0.79
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 108 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
9.0%
|
11.09x | 44.4% n=108 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
32.4%
|
3.09x | 44.4% n=108 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
58.6%
|
1.71x | 44.4% n=108 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — ATK Mohun Bag… 6W / 3D / 3L
· momentum ATK Mohun B… 2.17 ppg vs Odisha 0.5 ppg
ATK Mohun Bagan · last 6
05 Nov · Indian Super League
3-2
W
31 Oct · Indian Super League
2-1
W
26 Oct · Indian Super League
1-0
W
16 Oct · Indian Super League
1-2
W
12 Oct · Indian Super League
1-0
L
29 Sep · IFA Shield
1-1
D
Odisha · last 6
05 Nov · Indian Super League
3-2
L
24 Oct · Indian Super League
0-0
D
17 Oct · Indian Super League
1-1
D
14 Oct · Indian Super League
2-1
L
21 May · Indian Super League
0-0
D
16 May · Indian Super League
2-3
L
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · Indian Super League
ATK Mohun Bagan 3-2 Odisha
06 Mar 26 · Indian Super League
Odisha 5-1 ATK Mohun Bagan
23 Feb 25 · Indian Super League
ATK Mohun Bagan 1-0 Odisha
10 Nov 24 · Indian Super League
Odisha 1-1 ATK Mohun Bagan
28 Apr 24 · Indian Super League
ATK Mohun Bagan 2-0 Odisha
Tickets including this match