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First League
Tikveš vs Skopje
Sat 07 Nov 18:00 0 minutes final 1–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home or Draw · 86.9%
book 1.08x · short <1.30x
why
• league OK (64.7%, n=17)
• type ledger 80% (n=1993)
• short price 1.08x
• priced 1.08x needs 92% to break even
league track
ok · 64.7% of 17 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 41.3%)
draws 31.7% of matches
team history 17/18 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1993, 90d ledger)
measured band: 85.0% (n=293)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2528)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
86.9%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (86.9%)
@ 06 Nov 10:43 · 1.08x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
69.8%
Draw
17.0%
Away win
13.1%
calibrated 06 Nov 10:43
scoring fit λ 2.25 / μ 0.84
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 274 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
13.1%
|
7.62x | 55.1% n=274 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
17.0%
|
5.87x | 55.1% n=274 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
69.9%
|
1.43x | 55.1% n=274 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — Tikveš 2W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Tikveš 2.33 ppg vs Skopje 0.67 ppg
Tikveš · last 6
07 Nov · First League
1-0
W
31 Oct · First League
1-1
D
28 Oct · Cup
1-3
W
24 Oct · First League
3-1
W
19 Oct · First League
1-1
D
10 Oct · First League
3-0
W
Skopje · last 6
07 Nov · First League
1-0
L
31 Oct · First League
0-0
D
28 Oct · Cup
1-0
W
24 Oct · First League
4-0
L
18 Oct · First League
1-3
L
11 Oct · First League
1-2
L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · First League
Tikveš 1-0 Skopje
21 Aug 26 · First League
Skopje 1-1 Tikveš
10 Sep 25 · Cup
Skopje 0-1 Tikveš