HOME
Premiership
Crusaders FC vs Carrick Rangers
Fri 13 Nov 21:45 1 day, 21 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 93.0%
why
• league OK (56.5%, n=23)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 56.5% of 23 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 36.8%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 21/19 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1957)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2555)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.0%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
19.4%
Draw
21.6%
Away win
59.0%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:57
scoring fit λ 1.28 / μ 2.29
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 239 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
59.0%
|
1.69x | 53.6% n=239 | lean |
| Draw |
21.6%
|
4.63x | 53.6% n=239 | risky |
| Home win |
19.4%
|
5.16x | 53.6% n=239 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — Crusaders FC 7W / 2D / 4L
· momentum Crusaders FC 0.5 ppg vs Carrick Ran… 1.5 ppg
Crusaders FC · last 6
07 Nov · Premiership
1-0
L
31 Oct · Premiership
1-4
W
24 Oct · Premiership
0-5
L
21 Oct · League Cup
5-2
L
17 Oct · Premiership
2-1
L
10 Oct · Premiership
0-3
L
Carrick Rangers · last 6
07 Nov · Premiership
0-0
D
31 Oct · Premiership
7-1
L
24 Oct · Premiership
1-1
D
20 Oct · League Cup
3-0
W
17 Oct · Premiership
2-2
D
10 Oct · Premiership
2-4
W
Head-to-head last 5
03 Oct 26 · Premiership
Carrick Rangers 4-0 Crusaders FC
28 Mar 26 · Premiership
Carrick Rangers 6-1 Crusaders FC
30 Dec 25 · Premiership
Crusaders FC 2-2 Carrick Rangers
08 Nov 25 · Premiership
Carrick Rangers 1-2 Crusaders FC
09 Aug 25 · Premiership
Crusaders FC 3-4 Carrick Rangers