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2nd Division - Group 1

Skive vs Thisted

Fri 13 Nov 20:00 1 day, 19 hours
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 93.6%
why
• league OK (72.4%, n=29)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 72.4% of 29 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 54.3%)
draws 33.3% of matches
team history 20/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2555)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.6%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
40.9%
Draw
31.5%
Away win
27.5%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:58
scoring fit λ 1.54 / μ 1.24
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 314 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
27.5%
3.63x 43.9% n=314 risky
Draw
31.5%
3.17x 43.9% n=314 risky
top Home win
40.9%
2.44x 43.9% n=314 risky
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Skive 2W / 3D / 7L · momentum Skive 1.67 ppg vs Thisted 0.5 ppg
Skive · last 6
06 Nov · 2nd Division - Group 1 1-0 L
30 Oct · 2nd Division - Group 1 4-1 W
24 Oct · 2nd Division - Group 1 3-3 D
17 Oct · 2nd Division - Group 1 2-0 W
10 Oct · 2nd Division - Group 1 3-0 L
03 Oct · 2nd Division - Group 1 2-0 W
Thisted · last 6
06 Nov · 2nd Division - Group 1 0-0 D
01 Nov · 2nd Division - Group 1 1-3 L
25 Oct · 2nd Division - Group 1 3-0 L
18 Oct · 2nd Division - Group 1 2-2 D
10 Oct · 2nd Division - Group 1 1-1 D
04 Oct · 2nd Division - Group 1 0-2 L
Head-to-head last 5
21 Aug 26 · 2nd Division - Group 1 Thisted 0-1 Skive
27 Mar 26 · 2nd Division - Group 1 Thisted 1-0 Skive
09 Aug 25 · 2nd Division - Group 1 Skive 1-2 Thisted
01 Nov 24 · 2nd Division - Group 1 Thisted 3-0 Skive
11 Oct 24 · 2nd Division - Group 1 Skive 1-1 Thisted