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Superliga

FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske

Sun 08 Nov 19:00 0 minutes final 2–2 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.2%
why
• league PROVEN (74.3%, n=35)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 74.3% of 35 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 57.9%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 30/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.2%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
74.7%
Draw
14.4%
Away win
10.9%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:26
scoring fit λ 2.58 / μ 0.87
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 187 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
10.9%
9.19x 50.3% n=187 risky lost
Draw
14.4%
6.95x 50.3% n=187 risky won
top Home win
74.7%
1.34x 50.3% n=187 solid lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 14 meetings — FC Midtjylland 8W / 3D / 3L · momentum FC Midtjyll… 1.67 ppg vs Sonderjyske 1.17 ppg
FC Midtjylland · last 6
08 Nov · Superliga 2-2 D
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 1-6 L
01 Nov · Superliga 2-3 W
29 Oct · DBU Pokalen 2-1 W
25 Oct · Superliga 3-2 W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 0-1 L
Sonderjyske · last 6
08 Nov · Superliga 2-2 D
02 Nov · Superliga 0-2 L
25 Oct · Superliga 5-1 L
18 Oct · Superliga 4-0 W
12 Oct · Superliga 3-0 L
20 Sep · Superliga 4-2 W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Superliga FC Midtjylland 2-2 Sonderjyske
26 Jul 26 · Superliga Sonderjyske 2-3 FC Midtjylland
23 Apr 26 · Superliga Sonderjyske 1-2 FC Midtjylland
04 Apr 26 · Superliga FC Midtjylland 2-2 Sonderjyske
09 Jan 26 · Friendlies Clubs Sonderjyske 3-6 FC Midtjylland
Tickets including this match
VALUE win chance 76.5% OPEN SURESHOT win chance 79.5% VOID SURESHOT win chance 76.8% VOID