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2nd Division - Group 1

Roskilde vs Nykøbing FC

Fri 13 Nov 20:00 1 day, 19 hours
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 94.6%
why
• league OK (72.4%, n=29)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 72.4% of 29 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 54.3%)
draws 33.3% of matches
team history 21/20 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1957)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2555)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.6%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
34.5%
Draw
30.4%
Away win
35.0%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:58
scoring fit λ 1.67 / μ 1.68
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 314 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
top Away win
35.0%
2.85x 43.9% n=314 risky
Draw
30.4%
3.28x 43.9% n=314 risky
Home win
34.5%
2.9x 43.9% n=314 risky
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Roskilde 1W / 1D / 0L · momentum Roskilde 1.83 ppg vs Nykøbing FC 2.0 ppg
Roskilde · last 6
06 Nov · 2nd Division - Group 1 2-1 W
31 Oct · 2nd Division - Group 1 0-0 D
28 Oct · DBU Pokalen 1-2 L
23 Oct · 2nd Division - Group 1 4-0 W
17 Oct · 2nd Division - Group 1 3-3 D
10 Oct · 2nd Division - Group 1 3-0 W
Nykøbing FC · last 6
08 Nov · 2nd Division - Group 1 0-2 L
30 Oct · 2nd Division - Group 1 1-4 W
25 Oct · 2nd Division - Group 1 3-0 W
21 Oct · DBU Pokalen 0-2 W
16 Oct · 2nd Division - Group 1 3-2 L
11 Oct · 2nd Division - Group 1 3-1 W
Head-to-head last 5
28 Aug 26 · 2nd Division - Group 1 Nykøbing FC 2-2 Roskilde
31 May 24 · 2nd Division - Group 1 Roskilde 5-1 Nykøbing FC