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1st Division
Hvidovre vs Aarhus Fremad
Today 20:00 16 hours, 36 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 76.1%
book 1.36x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league OK (55.6%, n=27)
• type ledger 80% (n=1977)
• priced 1.36x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
ok · 55.6% of 27 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 37.3%)
draws 40.0% of matches
team history 19/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1977, 90d ledger)
measured band: 79.6% (n=574)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2515)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
76.1%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (76.1%)
@ 09 Nov 02:53 · 1.36x
board also had Under 4.5 goals 83.9%
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
43.9%
Draw
32.2%
Away win
23.9%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 1.57 / μ 1.13
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 30 Oct · 286 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
23.9%
|
4.18x | 45.1% n=286 | risky |
| Draw |
32.2%
|
3.1x | 45.1% n=286 | risky |
| top Home win |
43.9%
|
2.28x | 45.1% n=286 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — Hvidovre 2W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Hvidovre 2.0 ppg vs Aarhus Frem… 0.83 ppg
Hvidovre · last 6
31 Oct · 1st Division
1-1
D
23 Oct · 1st Division
2-2
D
18 Oct · 1st Division
1-0
W
09 Oct · 1st Division
1-2
W
19 Sep · 1st Division
1-3
W
12 Sep · 1st Division
2-2
D
Aarhus Fremad · last 6
01 Nov · 1st Division
2-0
W
29 Oct · DBU Pokalen
0-3
L
24 Oct · 1st Division
0-0
D
16 Oct · 1st Division
0-0
D
09 Oct · 1st Division
2-0
L
19 Sep · 1st Division
1-3
L
Head-to-head last 5
19 Sep 26 · 1st Division
Aarhus Fremad 1-3 Hvidovre
01 Nov 25 · 1st Division
Aarhus Fremad 0-0 Hvidovre
15 Aug 25 · 1st Division
Hvidovre 2-0 Aarhus Fremad