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Liga Profesional Argentina
Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia
Sun 08 Nov 23:00 0 minutes final 1–0 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 93.2%
why
• league PROVEN (83.1%, n=59)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 83.1% of 59 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 71.5%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 30/17 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.2%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
65.7%
Draw
21.6%
Away win
12.6%
calibrated 08 Nov 00:47
scoring fit λ 1.88 / μ 0.68
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 525 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
12.6%
|
7.92x | 45.0% n=525 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
21.6%
|
4.62x | 45.0% n=525 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
65.7%
|
1.52x | 45.0% n=525 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Boca Juniors 6W / 4D / 2L
· momentum Boca Juniors 2.5 ppg vs Defensa y J… 1.67 ppg
Boca Juniors · last 6
08 Nov · Liga Profesional Arge…
1-0
W
01 Nov · Liga Profesional Arge…
1-0
W
25 Oct · Liga Profesional Arge…
0-1
W
21 Oct · CONMEBOL Sudamericana
1-3
W
18 Oct · Liga Profesional Arge…
2-1
W
14 Oct · CONMEBOL Sudamericana
0-1
L
Defensa y Justicia · last 6
08 Nov · Liga Profesional Arge…
1-0
L
01 Nov · Liga Profesional Arge…
1-1
D
25 Oct · Liga Profesional Arge…
1-2
W
18 Oct · Liga Profesional Arge…
0-1
L
10 Oct · Liga Profesional Arge…
0-2
W
03 Oct · Liga Profesional Arge…
3-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Liga Profesional Arge…
Boca Juniors 1-0 Defensa y Justi…
24 Apr 26 · Liga Profesional Arge…
Defensa y Justi… 0-4 Boca Juniors
28 Sep 25 · Liga Profesional Arge…
Defensa y Justi… 2-1 Boca Juniors
17 Mar 25 · Liga Profesional Arge…
Boca Juniors 4-0 Defensa y Justi…
22 Jul 24 · Liga Profesional Arge…
Defensa y Justi… 2-2 Boca Juniors
Tickets including this match