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Erovnuli Liga

Saburtalo vs Gagra

Today 17:00 13 hours, 36 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 93.7%
why
• league WATCH (50.0%, n=10)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
watch · 50.0% of 10 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 23.7%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 34/24 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3022)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.7%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
55.6%
Draw
18.6%
Away win
25.8%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 1.72 / μ 1.05
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 184 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
25.8%
3.88x 46.7% n=184 risky
Draw
18.6%
5.38x 46.7% n=184 risky
top Home win
55.6%
1.8x 46.7% n=184 lean
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 14 meetings — Saburtalo 10W / 1D / 3L · momentum Saburtalo 1.5 ppg vs Gagra 1.0 ppg
Saburtalo · last 6
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 2-1 L
31 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 0-0 D
26 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 3-2 W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 1-1 D
19 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 0-2 W
15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 2-0 D
Gagra · last 6
01 Nov · Erovnuli Liga 2-2 D
27 Oct · David Kipiani Cup 2-1 W
23 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 0-0 D
17 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 1-3 L
11 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 3-0 L
19 Sep · Erovnuli Liga 1-1 D
Head-to-head last 5
31 Aug 26 · Erovnuli Liga Gagra 2-0 Saburtalo
20 May 26 · Erovnuli Liga Saburtalo 1-0 Gagra
03 Apr 26 · Erovnuli Liga Gagra 1-2 Saburtalo
06 Dec 25 · Erovnuli Liga Saburtalo 2-1 Gagra
03 Oct 25 · Erovnuli Liga Gagra 1-3 Saburtalo