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Superliga
Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Vora
Sun 08 Nov 19:30 0 minutes final 5–1 · settledVo
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 93.0%
why
• league OK (72.7%, n=22)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 72.7% of 22 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 51.8%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 27/15 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.0%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
67.7%
Draw
21.4%
Away win
10.9%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:27
scoring fit λ 2.09 / μ 0.74
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 190 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
10.9%
|
9.16x | 38.9% n=190 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
21.4%
|
4.68x | 38.9% n=190 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
67.7%
|
1.48x | 38.9% n=190 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 6 meetings — Egnatia Rrogo… 4W / 1D / 1L
· momentum Egnatia Rro… 1.67 ppg vs Vora 1.33 ppg
Egnatia Rrogozhinë · last 6
08 Nov · Superliga
5-1
W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
2-0
L
01 Nov · Superliga
1-2
W
29 Oct · Superliga
1-0
W
25 Oct · Superliga
2-1
L
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
1-1
D
Vora · last 6
08 Nov · Superliga
5-1
L
02 Nov · Superliga
2-2
D
28 Oct · Superliga
2-1
W
24 Oct · Superliga
1-0
L
18 Oct · Superliga
4-1
W
10 Oct · Superliga
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Superliga
Egnatia Rrogozh… 5-1 Vora
31 Aug 26 · Superliga
Vora 1-3 Egnatia Rrogozh…
26 Apr 26 · Superliga
Egnatia Rrogozh… 0-2 Vora
14 Feb 26 · Superliga
Vora 1-1 Egnatia Rrogozh…
08 Dec 25 · Superliga
Egnatia Rrogozh… 2-0 Vora
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