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Premier Division
Lincoln Red Imps vs College 1975
Sun 08 Nov 17:30 0 minutes final 6–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 92.4%
why
• league PROVEN (90.9%, n=22)
• type ledger 75% (n=2258)
league track
proven · 90.9% of 22 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 72.2%)
draws 18.3% of matches
team history 19/9 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2258, 90d ledger)
measured band: 87.7% (n=57)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
92.4%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (92.4%)
@ 08 Nov 17:26
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
90.4%
Draw
7.6%
Away win
2.0%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:26
scoring fit λ 3.04 / μ 0.31
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 02 Nov · 188 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
2.0%
|
50.81x | 69.1% n=188 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
7.6%
|
13.12x | 69.1% n=188 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
90.4%
|
1.11x | 69.1% n=188 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 11 meetings — Lincoln Red I… 11W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Lincoln Red… 2.5 ppg vs College 1975 0.0 ppg
Lincoln Red Imps · last 6
08 Nov · Premier Division
6-0
W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
1-0
W
01 Nov · Premier Division
0-5
W
24 Oct · Premier Division
3-0
W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
1-4
L
18 Oct · Premier Division
1-2
W
College 1975 · last 6
08 Nov · Premier Division
6-0
L
31 Oct · Premier Division
0-2
L
28 Oct · Premier Division
2-4
L
25 Oct · Premier Division
5-0
L
11 Oct · Premier Division
7-0
L
18 Sep · Premier Division
2-3
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Premier Division
Lincoln Red Imps 6-0 College 1975
25 Jan 26 · Premier Division
Lincoln Red Imps 4-0 College 1975
18 Oct 25 · Premier Division
College 1975 0-3 Lincoln Red Imps
09 Mar 25 · Premier Division
College 1975 0-2 Lincoln Red Imps
03 Nov 24 · Premier Division
Lincoln Red Imps 5-1 College 1975