Sw
HOME
Professional Development League
Swansea City U21 vs Bristol City U21
Fri 06 Nov 21:00 0 minutes final 4–1 · 1 won · 0 lostBr
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 82.1%
book 1.25x · short <1.30x
why
• league OK (61.8%, n=34)
• type ledger 80% (n=1994)
• short price 1.25x
league track
ok · 61.8% of 34 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 45.0%)
draws 20.0% of matches
team history 13/13 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1994, 90d ledger)
measured band: 81.5% (n=427)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2529)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
82.1%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (82.1%)
@ 06 Nov 17:59 · 1.25x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
63.9%
Draw
18.2%
Away win
17.9%
calibrated 06 Nov 17:59
scoring fit λ 2.43 / μ 1.23
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 269 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
17.9%
|
5.58x | 46.1% n=269 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
18.2%
|
5.49x | 46.1% n=269 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
63.9%
|
1.57x | 46.1% n=269 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 9 meetings — Swansea City … 7W / 1D / 1L
· momentum Swansea Cit… 2.5 ppg vs Bristol Cit… 0.67 ppg
Swansea City U21 · last 6
06 Nov · Professional Developm…
4-1
W
30 Oct · Premier League Cup
0-3
W
26 Oct · Professional Developm…
3-2
W
20 Oct · Professional Developm…
2-0
L
06 Oct · Professional Developm…
1-2
W
28 Sep · Professional Developm…
4-2
W
Bristol City U21 · last 6
06 Nov · Professional Developm…
4-1
L
27 Oct · Professional Developm…
1-3
L
21 Oct · Premier League Cup
1-1
D
18 Oct · Professional Developm…
3-1
L
12 Oct · Premier League Cup
3-5
L
06 Oct · Professional Developm…
4-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Professional Developm…
Swansea City U21 4-1 Bristol City U21
13 Jan 26 · Professional Developm…
Bristol City U21 1-1 Swansea City U21
20 Sep 25 · Professional Developm…
Swansea City U21 4-1 Bristol City U21
18 Apr 25 · Professional Developm…
Bristol City U21 3-4 Swansea City U21
23 Sep 24 · Professional Developm…
Swansea City U21 2-0 Bristol City U21
Tickets including this match