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Serie B
Goiás vs Ponte Preta
Sun 08 Nov 00:15 0 minutes final 1–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 90.1%
book 1.13x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (78.5%, n=65)
• type ledger 75% (n=2258)
• short price 1.13x
league track
proven · 78.5% of 65 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 67.0%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 30/29 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2258, 90d ledger)
measured band: 87.7% (n=57)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=473)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
90.1%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (90.1%)
@ 09 Nov 00:18 · 1.13x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
88.1%
Draw
9.9%
Away win
2.0%
calibrated 09 Nov 00:18
scoring fit λ 2.48 / μ 0.18
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 387 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
2.0%
|
50.05x | 46.3% n=387 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
9.9%
|
10.14x | 46.3% n=387 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
88.1%
|
1.14x | 46.3% n=387 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 6 meetings — Goiás 3W / 2D / 1L
· momentum Goiás 2.67 ppg vs Ponte Preta 0.33 ppg
Goiás · last 6
09 Nov · Serie B
1-0
W
03 Nov · Serie B
2-1
W
28 Oct · Serie B
0-2
W
20 Oct · Serie B
0-0
D
11 Oct · Serie B
0-2
W
07 Oct · Serie B
2-1
W
Ponte Preta · last 6
09 Nov · Serie B
1-0
L
31 Oct · Serie B
2-0
L
24 Oct · Serie B
2-2
D
17 Oct · Serie B
1-1
D
13 Oct · Serie B
5-1
L
07 Oct · Serie B
0-2
L
Head-to-head last 5
09 Nov 26 · Serie B
Goiás 1-0 Ponte Preta
18 Jul 26 · Serie B
Ponte Preta 1-2 Goiás
18 Aug 24 · Serie B
Ponte Preta 1-1 Goiás
28 Apr 24 · Serie B
Goiás 3-0 Ponte Preta
03 Nov 21 · Serie B
Goiás 2-2 Ponte Preta