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Premier League Cup
Peterborough United U21 vs Newcastle United U21
Fri 13 Nov 21:00 1 day, 20 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 87.9%
why
• league PROVEN (71.1%, n=38)
• type ledger 79% (n=2310)
league track
proven · 71.1% of 38 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 55.2%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 11/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 78.5% hit (n=2310, 90d ledger)
measured band: 84.6% (n=311)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2555)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
87.9%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (87.9%)
@ 11 Nov 23:56
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
6.0%
Draw
12.1%
Away win
81.9%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:56
scoring fit λ 0.68 / μ 2.88
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 137 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
81.9%
|
1.22x | 46.0% n=137 | solid |
| Draw |
12.1%
|
8.28x | 46.0% n=137 | risky |
| Home win |
6.0%
|
16.69x | 46.0% n=137 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Peterborough … 0W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Peterboroug… 0.67 ppg vs Newcastle U… 2.67 ppg
Peterborough United U21 · last 6
30 Oct · Premier League Cup
2-0
L
26 Oct · Professional Developm…
3-6
W
21 Oct · Professional Developm…
2-2
D
13 Oct · Professional Developm…
0-4
L
09 Oct · Premier League Cup
1-5
L
29 Sep · Professional Developm…
0-1
L
Newcastle United U21 · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League 2 Divi…
1-1
D
03 Nov · EFL Trophy
0-1
W
30 Oct · Premier League Cup
2-0
W
26 Oct · Premier League 2 Divi…
3-2
W
13 Oct · National League Cup
1-2
W
09 Oct · Premier League Cup
4-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
30 Oct 26 · Premier League Cup
Newcastle Unite… 2-0 Peterborough Un…
Tickets including this match