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Premier League 2 Division One
Brentford U21 vs Wolves U21
Fri 06 Nov 21:00 0 minutes final 0–2 · 0 won · 1 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 85.5%
why
• league OK (67.4%, n=46)
• type ledger 80% (n=1994)
league track
ok · 67.4% of 46 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 53.0%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 14/13 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1994, 90d ledger)
measured band: 85.0% (n=293)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2529)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
85.5%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (85.5%)
@ 06 Nov 18:03
pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
66.4%
Draw
19.1%
Away win
14.5%
calibrated 06 Nov 18:03
scoring fit λ 2.54 / μ 1.15
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 291 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
14.5%
|
6.9x | 50.5% n=291 | risky | won |
| Draw |
19.1%
|
5.25x | 50.5% n=291 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
66.4%
|
1.5x | 50.5% n=291 | lean | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Brentford U21 0W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Brentford U… 1.5 ppg vs Wolves U21 1.5 ppg
Brentford U21 · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League 2 Divi…
0-2
L
02 Nov · Premier League Cup
1-2
W
26 Oct · Premier League 2 Divi…
3-4
W
18 Oct · Premier League 2 Divi…
1-2
L
10 Oct · Premier League Cup
4-2
W
06 Oct · EFL Trophy
7-1
L
Wolves U21 · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League 2 Divi…
0-2
W
03 Nov · National League Cup
2-2
D
19 Oct · Premier League 2 Divi…
2-1
W
13 Oct · National League Cup
0-0
D
09 Oct · Premier League Cup
1-1
D
18 Sep · Premier League 2 Divi…
0-2
L
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Premier League 2 Divi…
Brentford U21 0-2 Wolves U21