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Liga Nacional
Cobán Imperial vs Xelajú
Sun 08 Nov 23:00 0 minutes final 0–1 · 0 won · 2 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 84.0%
book 1.42x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (75.0%, n=40)
• type ledger 80% (n=1980)
• priced 1.42x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
proven · 75.0% of 40 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.8%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 19/23 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1980, 90d ledger)
measured band: 82.0% (n=423)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
84.0%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home, draw refunds
solid (78.4%)
@ 09 Nov 00:19 · 1.44x
board also had Home or Draw 84.0%
pick lost
Home or Draw
solid (84.0%)
@ 09 Nov 00:19 · 1.42x
pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
58.1%
Draw
25.8%
Away win
16.1%
calibrated 09 Nov 00:19
scoring fit λ 1.83 / μ 0.88
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 235 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
16.1%
|
6.23x | 51.5% n=235 | risky | won |
| Draw |
25.8%
|
3.87x | 51.5% n=235 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
58.1%
|
1.72x | 51.5% n=235 | lean | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 14 meetings — Cobán Imperial 4W / 4D / 6L
· momentum Cobán Imper… 2.0 ppg vs Xelajú 2.17 ppg
Cobán Imperial · last 6
08 Nov · Liga Nacional
0-1
L
02 Nov · Liga Nacional
1-2
W
28 Oct · Liga Nacional
2-1
W
25 Oct · Liga Nacional
3-1
W
18 Oct · Liga Nacional
3-1
L
15 Oct · Liga Nacional
2-1
W
Xelajú · last 6
08 Nov · Liga Nacional
0-1
W
03 Nov · Liga Nacional
2-0
W
29 Oct · Liga Nacional
0-0
D
24 Oct · Liga Nacional
1-0
W
20 Oct · Liga Nacional
3-0
L
15 Oct · Liga Nacional
2-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Liga Nacional
Cobán Imperial 0-1 Xelajú
11 Sep 26 · Liga Nacional
Xelajú 0-0 Cobán Imperial
27 Apr 26 · Liga Nacional
Xelajú 2-1 Cobán Imperial
06 Mar 26 · Liga Nacional
Cobán Imperial 1-1 Xelajú
22 Nov 25 · Liga Nacional
Xelajú 3-1 Cobán Imperial
Tickets including this match