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Liga Nacional

Municipal vs Aurora

Sat 07 Nov 01:00 0 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 94.8%
why
• league PROVEN (75.0%, n=40)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 75.0% of 40 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.8%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 22/18 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=473)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.8%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
72.4%
Draw
20.6%
Away win
7.0%
calibrated 08 Nov 00:51
scoring fit λ 2.09 / μ 0.54
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 235 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
7.0%
14.25x 51.5% n=235 risky
Draw
20.6%
4.86x 51.5% n=235 risky
top Home win
72.4%
1.38x 51.5% n=235 solid
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 5 meetings — Municipal 3W / 1D / 1L · momentum Municipal 0.83 ppg vs Aurora 2.17 ppg
Municipal · last 6
25 Nov · Liga Nacional 0-0 D
01 Nov · Liga Nacional 1-0 L
29 Oct · Liga Nacional 3-1 W
24 Oct · Liga Nacional 1-0 L
19 Oct · Liga Nacional 1-1 D
15 Oct · Liga Nacional 2-1 L
Aurora · last 6
01 Nov · Liga Nacional 0-2 L
29 Oct · Liga Nacional 0-2 W
26 Oct · Liga Nacional 2-2 D
18 Oct · Liga Nacional 3-1 W
15 Oct · Liga Nacional 1-2 W
10 Oct · Liga Nacional 2-1 W
Head-to-head last 5
10 Sep 26 · Liga Nacional Aurora 1-2 Municipal
16 Mar 26 · Liga Nacional Municipal 4-1 Aurora
25 Jan 26 · Liga Nacional Aurora 2-2 Municipal
05 Oct 25 · Liga Nacional Aurora 1-0 Municipal
27 Jul 25 · Liga Nacional Municipal 2-1 Aurora
Tickets including this match
SURESHOT win chance 80.6% VOID SURESHOT win chance 78.1% VOID TREBLE win chance 77.2% VOID TREBLE win chance 71.1% VOID