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First Division League (FDL)
Al Wehda Club vs Al Jeel
Sun 08 Nov 18:35 0 minutes final 4–1 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 92.0%
why
• league PROVEN (77.4%, n=53)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 77.4% of 53 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 64.5%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 13/9 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.0%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
68.2%
Draw
20.3%
Away win
11.5%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:25
scoring fit λ 1.98 / μ 0.67
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 334 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
11.5%
|
8.72x | 52.7% n=334 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
20.3%
|
4.91x | 52.7% n=334 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
68.2%
|
1.47x | 52.7% n=334 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Al Wehda Club 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Al Wehda Cl… 2.33 ppg vs Al Jeel 0.67 ppg
Al Wehda Club · last 6
08 Nov · First Division League…
4-1
W
03 Nov · First Division League…
0-1
W
27 Oct · First Division League…
2-1
W
21 Oct · First Division League…
1-1
D
12 Oct · First Division League…
6-1
W
20 Sep · First Division League…
2-2
D
Al Jeel · last 6
08 Nov · First Division League…
4-1
L
02 Nov · First Division League…
0-1
L
27 Oct · First Division League…
0-1
W
20 Sep · First Division League…
0-0
D
15 Sep · First Division League…
1-0
L
09 Sep · First Division League…
3-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · First Division League…
Al Wehda Club 4-1 Al Jeel
Tickets including this match