HOME
Eredivisie
Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven
Sun 08 Nov 17:45 0 minutes final 2–5 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 1.5 goals · 89.6%
why
• league OK (66.7%, n=45)
• type ledger 69% (n=403)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 66.7% of 45 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 52.1%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 16/20 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O1.5: 69.5% hit (n=403, 90d ledger)
measured band: 74.1% (n=58)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
89.6%
Over 1.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
15.5%
Draw
23.4%
Away win
61.2%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:23
scoring fit λ 1.33 / μ 2.55
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 314 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
61.2%
|
1.64x | 51.0% n=314 | lean | won |
| Draw |
23.4%
|
4.28x | 51.0% n=314 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
15.5%
|
6.47x | 51.0% n=314 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 23 meetings — Cambuur 5W / 3D / 15L
· momentum Cambuur 2.17 ppg vs PSV Eindhov… 1.67 ppg
Cambuur · last 6
08 Nov · Eredivisie
2-5
L
31 Oct · Eredivisie
4-0
W
27 Oct · KNVB Beker
0-2
W
24 Oct · Eredivisie
1-6
W
18 Oct · Eredivisie
2-2
D
11 Oct · Eredivisie
0-1
W
PSV Eindhoven · last 6
08 Nov · Eredivisie
2-5
W
04 Nov · UEFA Champions League
1-2
L
31 Oct · Eredivisie
7-0
W
25 Oct · Eredivisie
1-1
D
20 Oct · UEFA Champions League
0-1
W
17 Oct · Eredivisie
2-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Eredivisie
Cambuur 2-5 PSV Eindhoven
24 Jan 25 · Eerste Divisie
PSV Eindhoven 4-2 Cambuur
21 Oct 24 · Eerste Divisie
Cambuur 2-0 PSV Eindhoven
29 Mar 24 · Eerste Divisie
PSV Eindhoven 0-3 Cambuur
01 Dec 23 · Eerste Divisie
Cambuur 2-2 PSV Eindhoven
Tickets including this match