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Serie B
Cuiabá vs Juventude
Sat 07 Nov 02:30 0 minutes final 1–2 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Draw or Away · 80.0%
why
• league PROVEN (78.5%, n=65)
• type ledger 77% (n=658)
league track
proven · 78.5% of 65 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 67.0%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 29/32 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 76.6% hit (n=658, 90d ledger)
measured band: 72.3% (n=65)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=474)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
80.0%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Safer
72.6%
Away, draw refunds
safest leg we would still back — lower variance, smaller payout.
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
20.0%
Draw
27.1%
Away win
52.9%
calibrated 07 Nov 03:59
scoring fit λ 0.79 / μ 1.46
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 387 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
52.9%
|
1.89x | 46.3% n=387 | risky | won |
| Draw |
27.1%
|
3.69x | 46.3% n=387 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
20.0%
|
5.0x | 46.3% n=387 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 10 meetings — Cuiabá 4W / 4D / 2L
· momentum Cuiabá 0.17 ppg vs Juventude 2.0 ppg
Cuiabá · last 6
07 Nov · Serie B
1-2
L
01 Nov · Serie B
1-2
L
27 Oct · Serie B
1-0
L
21 Oct · Serie B
1-0
L
11 Oct · Serie B
0-1
L
08 Oct · Serie B
0-0
D
Juventude · last 6
07 Nov · Serie B
1-2
W
31 Oct · Serie B
2-2
D
27 Oct · Serie B
4-0
W
17 Oct · Serie B
2-2
D
11 Oct · Serie B
2-2
D
07 Oct · Serie B
0-2
W
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Serie B
Cuiabá 1-2 Juventude
18 Jul 26 · Serie B
Juventude 2-0 Cuiabá
24 Nov 24 · Serie A
Juventude 1-1 Cuiabá
06 Sep 24 · Serie A
Cuiabá 0-0 Juventude
14 Aug 22 · Serie A
Cuiabá 1-0 Juventude
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