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Premier League
Zenit Saint Petersburg vs FC Rostov
Sun 08 Nov 17:30 0 minutes final 2–2 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 92.5%
why
• league OK (66.7%, n=15)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 66.7% of 15 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 41.7%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 27/23 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.5%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
65.8%
Draw
23.2%
Away win
11.0%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:26
scoring fit λ 2.00 / μ 0.72
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
11.0%
|
9.06x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
23.2%
|
4.31x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | won |
| top Home win |
65.8%
|
1.52x | 67.7% n=31 | lean | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Zenit Saint P… 9W / 3D / 0L
· momentum Zenit Saint… 2.67 ppg vs FC Rostov 1.83 ppg
Zenit Saint Petersburg · last 6
08 Nov · Premier League
2-2
D
02 Nov · Premier League
0-3
W
29 Oct · Cup
2-3
W
25 Oct · Premier League
2-0
W
18 Oct · Premier League
3-2
W
14 Oct · Cup
1-2
W
FC Rostov · last 6
08 Nov · Premier League
2-2
D
01 Nov · Premier League
0-3
W
28 Oct · Cup
6-1
W
25 Oct · Premier League
2-0
W
18 Oct · Premier League
0-0
D
14 Oct · Cup
4-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Premier League
Zenit Saint Pet… 2-2 FC Rostov
17 May 26 · Premier League
FC Rostov 0-1 Zenit Saint Pet…
20 Jul 25 · Premier League
Zenit Saint Pet… 2-1 FC Rostov
18 May 25 · Premier League
FC Rostov 0-1 Zenit Saint Pet…
16 Apr 25 · Cup
Zenit Saint Pet… 2-0 FC Rostov