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AFC Cup
Bangkok Glass vs Wofoo Tai Po
Thu 05 Nov 14:15 0 minutes final 4–1 · 0 won · 1 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 3.5 goals · 60.5%
book 1.68x · longshot 1.55x+
why
• league OK (67.2%, n=64)
• type ledger 71% (n=343)
• priced 1.68x - 1.55x+ legs hit ~53% (60d)
• confidence 61% below the 85% proven band
league track
ok · 67.2% of 64 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 55.0%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 14/13 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U3.5: 71.4% hit (n=343, 90d ledger)
measured band: 65.9% (n=123)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
60.5%
Under 3.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Under 3.5 goals
lean (60.5%)
@ 05 Nov 10:39 · 1.68x
board also had Under 5.5 goals 88.3%
pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
61.9%
Draw
16.8%
Away win
21.3%
calibrated 05 Nov 10:39
scoring fit λ 1.96 / μ 1.01
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 30 Oct · 137 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
21.3%
|
4.68x | 58.4% n=137 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
16.8%
|
5.95x | 58.4% n=137 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
61.9%
|
1.62x | 58.4% n=137 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Bangkok Glass 2W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Bangkok Gla… 2.0 ppg vs Wofoo Tai Po 1.17 ppg
Bangkok Glass · last 6
08 Nov · Thai League 1
3-0
W
05 Nov · AFC Cup
4-1
W
02 Nov · Thai League 1
1-0
L
29 Oct · AFC Cup
0-3
W
24 Oct · Thai League 1
2-0
W
21 Oct · FA Cup
1-0
L
Wofoo Tai Po · last 6
08 Nov · Premier League
1-3
W
05 Nov · AFC Cup
4-1
L
29 Oct · AFC Cup
0-3
L
19 Oct · Premier League
4-2
W
15 Oct · AFC Cup
0-1
L
10 Oct · Premier League
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · AFC Cup
Bangkok Glass 4-1 Wofoo Tai Po
29 Oct 26 · AFC Cup
Wofoo Tai Po 0-3 Bangkok Glass