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A Lyga

Panevėžys vs Šiauliai

Sat 07 Nov 14:15 0 minutes final 1–0 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 94.0%
why
• league PROVEN (100.0%, n=12)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 100.0% of 12 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 75.7%)
draws 20.0% of matches
team history 26/24 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.0%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
54.8%
Draw
24.5%
Away win
20.7%
calibrated 07 Nov 11:05
scoring fit λ 1.85 / μ 1.06
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 43 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
20.7%
4.84x 51.2% n=43 risky lost
Draw
24.5%
4.08x 51.2% n=43 risky lost
top Home win
54.8%
1.82x 51.2% n=43 risky won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 14 meetings — Panevėžys 6W / 2D / 6L · momentum Panevėžys 2.5 ppg vs Šiauliai 0.83 ppg
Panevėžys · last 6
07 Nov · A Lyga 1-0 W
31 Oct · A Lyga 1-0 W
25 Oct · A Lyga 2-1 L
17 Oct · A Lyga 2-1 W
03 Oct · Friendlies Clubs 0-2 W
26 Sep · Friendlies Clubs 2-0 W
Šiauliai · last 6
07 Nov · A Lyga 1-0 L
31 Oct · A Lyga 2-1 W
25 Oct · A Lyga 0-0 D
20 Sep · A Lyga 0-2 L
13 Sep · A Lyga 0-0 D
06 Sep · A Lyga 1-0 L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · A Lyga Panevėžys 1-0 Šiauliai
17 Aug 26 · A Lyga Šiauliai 1-0 Panevėžys
20 Jun 26 · A Lyga Panevėžys 3-2 Šiauliai
18 Apr 26 · A Lyga Šiauliai 3-1 Panevėžys
05 Oct 25 · A Lyga Šiauliai 3-3 Panevėžys
Tickets including this match
SURESHOT win chance 77.5% VOID VALUE win chance 74.9% VOID SURESHOT win chance 77.9% VOID