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Premier League 2 Division One

Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21

Today 21:00 16 hours, 14 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home or Draw · 68.5%
book 1.49x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league OK (67.4%, n=46)
• type ledger 80% (n=1980)
• priced 1.49x - band hits ~65% (60d)
• 1X in a 10-20pp mismatch is the draw dead zone (90d: 75.9% hit, -25.6% ROI)
league track
ok · 67.4% of 46 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 53.0%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 12/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1980, 90d ledger)
measured band: 75.2% (n=149)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
68.5%
Home or Draw
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw lean (68.5%)
@ 09 Nov 02:53 · 1.49x
board also had Under 5.5 goals 81.3%
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
48.1%
Draw
20.4%
Away win
31.4%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 2.12 / μ 1.70
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 291 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
31.5%
3.18x 50.5% n=291 risky
Draw
20.4%
4.9x 50.5% n=291 risky
top Home win
48.1%
2.08x 50.5% n=291 risky
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Middlesbrough… 0W / 0D / 1L · momentum Middlesbrou… 1.17 ppg vs Derby Count… 0.83 ppg
Middlesbrough U21 · last 6
03 Nov · Premier League Intern… 3-2 W
26 Oct · Premier League 2 Divi… 1-2 L
20 Oct · National League Cup 7-1 L
16 Oct · Premier League 2 Divi… 2-1 L
30 Sep · Premier League Intern… 1-0 W
18 Sep · Premier League 2 Divi… 2-2 D
Derby County U21 · last 6
03 Nov · National League Cup 2-2 D
02 Nov · Premier League Cup 1-0 L
26 Oct · Premier League 2 Divi… 3-4 L
19 Oct · Premier League 2 Divi… 0-4 W
13 Oct · National League Cup 2-2 D
10 Oct · Premier League Cup 4-2 L
Head-to-head last 5
20 Mar 26 · Premier League 2 Divi… Derby County U21 1-0 Middlesbrough U…