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Premiership
Coleraine FC vs Portadown
Fri 13 Nov 21:45 1 day, 21 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 93.4%
why
• league OK (56.5%, n=23)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 56.5% of 23 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 36.8%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 22/18 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1957)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2555)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.4%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
89.5%
Draw
3.3%
Away win
7.2%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:57
scoring fit λ 2.72 / μ 0.40
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 239 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
7.2%
|
13.84x | 53.6% n=239 | risky |
| Draw |
3.3%
|
30.48x | 53.6% n=239 | risky |
| top Home win |
89.5%
|
1.12x | 53.6% n=239 | solid |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — Coleraine FC 11W / 1D / 1L
· momentum Coleraine FC 2.17 ppg vs Portadown 0.83 ppg
Coleraine FC · last 6
07 Nov · Premiership
3-0
L
30 Oct · Premiership
1-1
D
24 Oct · Premiership
0-5
W
16 Oct · Premiership
2-3
W
10 Oct · Premiership
1-0
W
04 Oct · Premiership
2-3
W
Portadown · last 6
07 Nov · Premiership
1-1
D
30 Oct · Premiership
1-0
L
23 Oct · Premiership
1-2
L
20 Oct · League Cup
0-2
L
17 Oct · Premiership
1-2
W
09 Oct · Premiership
0-0
D
Head-to-head last 5
28 Aug 26 · Premiership
Portadown 0-3 Coleraine FC
18 Jul 26 · Friendlies Clubs
Coleraine FC 3-0 Portadown
10 Feb 26 · Premiership
Coleraine FC 2-1 Portadown
25 Oct 25 · Premiership
Portadown 0-2 Coleraine FC
13 Sep 25 · Premiership
Portadown 1-4 Coleraine FC
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