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Premiership
Ballymena United vs Linfield
Fri 13 Nov 21:45 1 day, 21 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 91.5%
why
• league OK (56.5%, n=23)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 56.5% of 23 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 36.8%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 21/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2555)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.5%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
19.2%
Draw
26.4%
Away win
54.4%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:57
scoring fit λ 1.02 / μ 1.82
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 239 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
54.4%
|
1.84x | 53.6% n=239 | risky |
| Draw |
26.4%
|
3.8x | 53.6% n=239 | risky |
| Home win |
19.2%
|
5.2x | 53.6% n=239 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Ballymena Uni… 2W / 1D / 9L
· momentum Ballymena U… 1.67 ppg vs Linfield 2.33 ppg
Ballymena United · last 6
07 Nov · Premiership
1-1
D
31 Oct · Premiership
0-1
L
20 Oct · League Cup
1-3
W
17 Oct · Premiership
2-1
W
10 Oct · Premiership
3-2
L
03 Oct · Premiership
0-1
W
Linfield · last 6
07 Nov · Premiership
3-0
W
31 Oct · Premiership
1-1
D
23 Oct · Premiership
1-2
W
20 Oct · Premiership
1-2
W
17 Oct · Premiership
2-2
D
10 Oct · Premiership
2-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Aug 26 · Premiership
Linfield 0-3 Ballymena United
31 Jan 26 · Premiership
Linfield 2-1 Ballymena United
28 Jan 26 · League Cup
Linfield 1-0 Ballymena United
25 Oct 25 · Premiership
Linfield 2-1 Ballymena United
16 Sep 25 · Premiership
Ballymena United 1-0 Linfield