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Premiership

Larne vs Dungannon Swifts

Fri 13 Nov 21:45 1 day, 21 hours
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 81.8%
book 1.28x · short <1.30x
why
• league OK (56.5%, n=23)
• type ledger 79% (n=2310)
• short price 1.28x
league track
ok · 56.5% of 23 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 36.8%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 22/20 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 78.5% hit (n=2310, 90d ledger)
measured band: 80.4% (n=703)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2555)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
81.8%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins solid (81.8%)
@ 11 Nov 23:57 · 1.28x
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
63.9%
Draw
18.2%
Away win
17.9%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:57
scoring fit λ 2.10 / μ 0.99
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 239 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
17.9%
5.59x 53.6% n=239 risky
Draw
18.2%
5.48x 53.6% n=239 risky
top Home win
63.9%
1.56x 53.6% n=239 lean
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — Larne 7W / 3D / 3L · momentum Larne 1.17 ppg vs Dungannon S… 1.33 ppg
Larne · last 6
06 Nov · Premiership 4-2 L
30 Oct · Premiership 1-0 W
27 Oct · Premiership 1-1 D
24 Oct · Premiership 1-2 W
20 Oct · Premiership 1-2 L
16 Oct · Premiership 2-3 L
Dungannon Swifts · last 6
07 Nov · Premiership 3-2 W
31 Oct · Premiership 1-1 D
24 Oct · Premiership 1-3 L
20 Oct · League Cup 1-2 W
17 Oct · Premiership 0-0 D
10 Oct · Premiership 2-4 L
Head-to-head last 5
25 Apr 26 · Premiership Larne 8-0 Dungannon Swifts
13 Mar 26 · Premiership Larne 2-1 Dungannon Swifts
29 Nov 25 · Premiership Dungannon Swifts 1-2 Larne
04 Oct 25 · Premiership Dungannon Swifts 2-0 Larne
01 Apr 25 · Premiership Dungannon Swifts 1-1 Larne