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Primera División - Apertura

Cerro Largo vs Progreso

Tomorrow 01:00 1 day
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 94.2%
why
• league OK (65.0%, n=20)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 65.0% of 20 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 43.3%)
draws 20.0% of matches
team history 24/23 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.5% hit (n=477)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.2%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
42.4%
Draw
26.4%
Away win
31.2%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:58
scoring fit λ 1.33 / μ 1.10
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 273 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
31.2%
3.2x 43.6% n=273 risky
Draw
26.4%
3.79x 43.6% n=273 risky
top Home win
42.4%
2.36x 43.6% n=273 risky
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 9 meetings — Cerro Largo 7W / 1D / 1L · momentum Cerro Largo 0.67 ppg vs Progreso 1.67 ppg
Cerro Largo · last 6
31 Oct · Primera División - Ap… 3-1 L
25 Oct · Primera División - Ap… 2-0 W
21 Oct · Copa Uruguay 1-0 L
17 Oct · Primera División - Ap… 1-1 D
11 Oct · Primera División - Ap… 0-1 L
04 Oct · Primera División - Ap… 2-1 L
Progreso · last 6
01 Nov · Primera División - Ap… 0-2 L
25 Oct · Primera División - Ap… 0-1 W
17 Oct · Primera División - Ap… 2-0 W
10 Oct · Primera División - Ap… 1-1 D
03 Oct · Primera División - Ap… 3-2 L
26 Sep · Primera División - Ap… 2-1 W
Head-to-head last 5
03 May 26 · Primera División - Ap… Progreso 0-1 Cerro Largo
09 Aug 25 · Primera División - Cl… Progreso 1-2 Cerro Largo
08 Feb 25 · Primera División - Ap… Cerro Largo 4-1 Progreso
01 Dec 24 · Primera División - Cl… Cerro Largo 2-1 Progreso
04 Jun 24 · Primera División - Ap… Progreso 0-1 Cerro Largo