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Friendlies Clubs
Turku PS vs Ilves
Fri 13 Nov 13:30 1 day, 13 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.8%
why
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 22/30 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 76.6% hit (n=3052)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.8%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
34.8%
Draw
25.1%
Away win
40.2%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:54
scoring fit λ 1.36 / μ 1.48
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 3887 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
40.2%
|
2.49x | 44.7% n=3887 | risky |
| Draw |
25.1%
|
3.99x | 44.7% n=3887 | risky |
| Home win |
34.8%
|
2.88x | 44.7% n=3887 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 8 meetings — Turku PS 0W / 0D / 8L
· momentum Turku PS 0.33 ppg vs Ilves 2.17 ppg
Turku PS · last 6
17 Oct · Veikkausliiga
5-1
L
10 Oct · Veikkausliiga
0-1
L
19 Sep · Veikkausliiga
0-3
L
12 Sep · Veikkausliiga
1-0
L
08 Sep · Veikkausliiga
0-0
D
31 Aug · Veikkausliiga
1-1
D
Ilves · last 6
17 Oct · Veikkausliiga
2-0
W
10 Oct · Veikkausliiga
1-1
D
19 Sep · Veikkausliiga
0-3
W
12 Sep · Veikkausliiga
3-1
W
08 Sep · Veikkausliiga
2-0
W
31 Aug · Veikkausliiga
1-2
L
Head-to-head last 5
19 Sep 26 · Veikkausliiga
Turku PS 0-3 Ilves
20 Jul 26 · Veikkausliiga
Turku PS 1-3 Ilves
13 Jun 26 · Veikkausliiga
Ilves 1-0 Turku PS
27 May 26 · Suomen Cup
Ilves 1-0 Turku PS
26 Apr 23 · Suomen Cup
Turku PS 0-2 Ilves