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Friendlies
Kuwait vs Syria
Fri 13 Nov 16:00 1 day, 15 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 92.4%
why
• league NEW (0.0%, n=1)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 0.0% of 1 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 0.0%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 4/3 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 76.6% hit (n=3052)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.4%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
51.6%
Draw
23.0%
Away win
25.4%
calibrated 12 Nov 00:00
scoring fit λ 2.19 / μ 1.52
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 661 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
25.4%
|
3.94x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| Draw |
23.0%
|
4.34x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| top Home win |
51.6%
|
1.94x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Kuwait 0.17 ppg vs Syria 1.5 ppg
Kuwait · last 6
29 Sep · Gulf Cup of Nations
3-1
L
26 Sep · Gulf Cup of Nations
2-3
L
23 Sep · Gulf Cup of Nations
1-0
L
05 Jun · Friendlies
2-2
D
09 Dec · Arab Cup
3-1
L
06 Dec · Arab Cup
1-3
L
Syria · last 6
01 Oct · Friendlies
0-0
D
27 Sep · Friendlies
1-1
D
05 Jun · Friendlies
4-1
L
31 Mar · Asian Cup - Qualifica…
5-1
W
07 Dec · Arab Cup
0-0
D
18 Nov · Asian Cup - Qualifica…
0-5
W
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.