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UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification

Turkey U21 vs Czech Republic U21

Tomorrow 18:00 1 day, 14 hours
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home or Draw · 67.2%
book 1.53x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• type ledger 79% (n=2002)
• priced 1.53x - band hits ~65% (60d)
• league is untracked (no graded ledger yet)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 20.0% of matches
team history 3/3 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.0% hit (n=2002, 90d ledger)
measured band: 72.8% (n=151)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2557)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
67.2%
Home or Draw
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Safer
79.9%
Either team wins
safest leg we would still back — lower variance, smaller payout.
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw lean (67.2%)
@ 12 Nov 03:05 · 1.53x
board also had Either team wins 79.9%
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
47.2%
Draw
20.1%
Away win
32.8%
calibrated 12 Nov 03:05
scoring fit λ 1.21 / μ 0.93
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 153 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
32.8%
3.05x 62.1% n=153 risky
Draw
20.1%
4.98x 62.1% n=153 risky
top Home win
47.2%
2.12x 62.1% n=153 risky
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Turkey U21 1.83 ppg vs Czech Repub… 1.5 ppg
Turkey U21 · last 6
06 Oct · UEFA U21 Championship… 0-0 D
26 Sep · UEFA U21 Championship… 2-2 D
03 Jun · Friendlies 1-0 W
31 Mar · UEFA U21 Championship… 3-0 L
18 Nov · UEFA U21 Championship… 1-2 W
14 Nov · UEFA U21 Championship… 1-0 W
Czech Republic U21 · last 6
06 Oct · UEFA U21 Championship… 2-0 L
30 Sep · UEFA U21 Championship… 1-0 W
25 Sep · UEFA U21 Championship… 1-1 D
31 Mar · UEFA U21 Championship… 5-0 W
27 Mar · UEFA U21 Championship… 0-0 D
18 Nov · UEFA U21 Championship… 0-0 D
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.