Ch
HOME
Friendlies
Chile U20 vs Mexico U20
Fri 13 Nov 21:00 1 day, 20 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 4.5 goals · 93.4%
why
• league NEW (0.0%, n=1)
• type ledger 82% (n=109)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 0.0% of 1 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 0.0%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 1/8 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U4.5: 81.7% hit (n=109, 90d ledger)
measured band: 88.3% (n=1151)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2555)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.4%
Under 4.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
48.4%
Draw
26.2%
Away win
25.4%
calibrated 12 Nov 00:00
scoring fit λ 1.29 / μ 0.84
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 661 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
25.4%
|
3.93x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| Draw |
26.2%
|
3.82x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| top Home win |
48.3%
|
2.07x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Chile U20 0.0 ppg vs Mexico U20 2.5 ppg
Chile U20 · last 6
06 Jun · Friendlies
0-1
L
01 Oct · World Cup - U20
0-2
L
27 Jul · COTIF Tournament
2-1
L
Mexico U20 · last 6
04 Oct · Friendlies
4-0
L
10 Aug · CONCACAF U20
0-2
W
08 Aug · CONCACAF U20
1-2
W
06 Aug · CONCACAF U20
4-0
W
31 Jul · CONCACAF U20
4-0
W
28 Jul · CONCACAF U20
0-2
W
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.