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Liga MX Femenil
América Women vs Toluca Women
Tomorrow 03:00 1 dayTo
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 89.4%
why
• league PROVEN (80.5%, n=41)
• type ledger 75% (n=2279)
league track
proven · 80.5% of 41 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 66.0%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 17/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.2% hit (n=2279, 90d ledger)
measured band: 80.2% (n=308)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.4% hit (n=475)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
89.4%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (89.4%)
@ 10 Nov 23:52
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
84.2%
Draw
10.6%
Away win
5.2%
calibrated 10 Nov 23:52
scoring fit λ 3.26 / μ 0.78
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 298 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
5.2%
|
19.17x | 69.5% n=298 | risky |
| Draw |
10.6%
|
9.43x | 69.5% n=298 | risky |
| top Home win |
84.2%
|
1.19x | 69.5% n=298 | solid |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — América Women 7W / 3D / 3L
· momentum América Wom… 2.5 ppg vs Toluca Women 1.83 ppg
América Women · last 6
07 Nov · Liga MX Femenil
1-3
W
01 Nov · Liga MX Femenil
6-0
W
26 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
0-7
W
19 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
2-1
W
03 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
4-3
L
29 Sep · Liga MX Femenil
0-5
W
Toluca Women · last 6
06 Nov · Liga MX Femenil
1-1
D
31 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
2-3
L
25 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
1-2
W
20 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
0-0
D
05 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
1-2
W
29 Sep · Liga MX Femenil
0-4
W
Head-to-head last 5
10 May 26 · Liga MX Femenil
América Women 4-3 Toluca Women
08 May 26 · Liga MX Femenil
Toluca Women 1-7 América Women
17 Mar 26 · Liga MX Femenil
América Women 2-0 Toluca Women
23 Sep 25 · Liga MX Femenil
Toluca Women 3-3 América Women
19 Apr 25 · Liga MX Femenil
Toluca Women 4-3 América Women