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Hwacheon KSPO vs Gyeongju

Tomorrow 12:00 1 day, 9 hours
Gy
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 4.5 goals · 86.8%
why
• league NEW (50.0%, n=6)
• type ledger 82% (n=109)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 50.0% of 6 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 18.8%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 23/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U4.5: 81.7% hit (n=109, 90d ledger)
measured band: 84.3% (n=89)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3034)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
86.8%
Under 4.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
48.3%
Draw
19.5%
Away win
32.2%
calibrated 10 Nov 23:54
scoring fit λ 1.51 / μ 1.16
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 108 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
32.2%
3.1x 48.1% n=108 risky
Draw
19.5%
5.13x 48.1% n=108 risky
top Home win
48.3%
2.07x 48.1% n=108 risky
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 14 meetings — Hwacheon KSPO 8W / 5D / 1L · momentum Hwacheon KS… 1.83 ppg vs Gyeongju 1.67 ppg
Hwacheon KSPO · last 6
04 Nov · AFC Women's Champions… 1-4 W
01 Nov · AFC Women's Champions… 1-2 L
28 Oct · WK-League 1-1 D
07 Oct · WK-League 1-2 W
02 Oct · WK-League 0-3 W
23 Sep · WK-League 1-1 D
Gyeongju · last 6
31 Oct · WK-League 1-3 W
28 Oct · WK-League 4-0 W
07 Oct · WK-League 1-2 L
03 Oct · WK-League 0-1 L
05 Sep · WK-League 1-1 D
02 Sep · WK-League 0-1 W
Head-to-head last 5
07 Oct 26 · WK-League Gyeongju 1-2 Hwacheon KSPO
07 Aug 26 · WK-League Hwacheon KSPO 1-1 Gyeongju
17 Jun 26 · WK-League Gyeongju 0-1 Hwacheon KSPO
02 May 26 · WK-League Hwacheon KSPO 2-0 Gyeongju
08 Sep 25 · WK-League Hwacheon KSPO 0-1 Gyeongju