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UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification

Iceland U21 vs Greece U21

Tomorrow 15:00 1 day, 12 hours
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 95.0%
why
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 20.0% of matches
team history 3/5 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1957)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3034)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
95.0%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
36.9%
Draw
19.3%
Away win
43.8%
calibrated 10 Nov 23:55
scoring fit λ 1.57 / μ 1.73
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 153 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
top Away win
43.8%
2.28x 62.1% n=153 risky
Draw
19.3%
5.19x 62.1% n=153 risky
Home win
36.9%
2.71x 62.1% n=153 risky
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Iceland U21 2.17 ppg vs Greece U21 1.67 ppg
Iceland U21 · last 6
06 Oct · UEFA U21 Championship… 0-2 W
29 Sep · UEFA U21 Championship… 5-1 W
25 Sep · UEFA U21 Championship… 1-1 D
30 Mar · UEFA U21 Championship… 2-1 L
26 Mar · UEFA U21 Championship… 6-2 W
13 Nov · UEFA U21 Championship… 1-3 W
Greece U21 · last 6
06 Oct · UEFA U21 Championship… 0-1 W
01 Oct · UEFA U21 Championship… 2-0 W
26 Sep · UEFA U21 Championship… 0-3 W
30 May · Friendlies 1-1 D
27 May · Friendlies 1-2 L
31 Mar · UEFA U21 Championship… 0-2 L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.